Reinsurance prices fell at the 1 January renewals this year, according to a report by Commerzbank Securities.

"The reinsurance industry is now officially in a cyclical downturn," the report said.

For investors, the bank reckons Swiss Re and Hannover Re are the choice stock picks. It adds: "Munich Re's worry is its primary business."

Commerzbank forecasts that the downturn could last until 2006 and will be mild as supply of capital is still constrained.