The number of commercial brokers will shrink from 3,000 to less than 250 in ten years, says the chief executive of Willis Commer-cial Network, Hugh Warren,

Warren, who is in charge of a network of 50 independent brokers in England and Wales, believes smaller companies face an "Armageddon" as they are forced to sell their businesses, due to imminent retirement, market consolidation, the General Insurance Standards Council (GISC) and advances in technology.

"Right now, there are way too many brokers but, by 2010, I think there will be fewer than 250, primarily because of retirement," he said.