Stockwatch

The week's winners
Cox up 11.3%
Kiln up 7.5%

The week's losers
Ockham down 5.8%
Windsor down 5.5%

Just how long the hard market will last has been the subject of debate over the past few months.

The last few days have brought a few clues.

Munich Re, the world's biggest reinsurer, reports a fantastic bounce in first quarter profits - and promptly talks of looking for even bigger price increases.

French giant SCOR forecast its property and casualty reinsurance will grow by 30% for this year, fulfilling every bit of the hopes it voiced back in January.

It revealed its premium income from property and casualty reinsurance has rocketed by 67% in the first quarter.

If this all seems a bit far away and a bit distant, think again. This trend is going to remain a major driver behind prices for cover in the UK.

It will also continue to focus underwriters' minds on the risks they are prepared to take on.

Industry pundits expect new capital to keep flowing into insurance during the second half of this year but if current trends persist, it will be a long time before capacity keeps up with demand.

Of course, different parts of the market are at different stages within the overall cycle and there will be different factors influencing price and profitability.

In the market for UK motor cover, for example, the biggest factor is going to continue to be claims inflation.

Most insurers will be trying their hardest to keep their costs down as rate rises stabilise and then fall, relative to claims.

Fortis, which earlier this year announced plans to venture from its motor stronghold into household, travel and small business cover, will have announced its first quarter results by the time this Insurance Times is in circulation.

The UK picture is likely to be hidden among a pile of statistics about the continental business but any news on the local operation's product progress will make interesting reading.

Overall, expect the group's profits to be up, but bear in mind that life profits are likely to be substantially higher than in the first quarter of last year, when they dipped by nearly 5%.