Tsunami impact incorporated, as prediction drops by around $5bn

Risk modelling company AIR Worldwide has narrowed its loss estimate range for the 11 March earthquake and tsunami in Japan.

The modeller now estimates losses at between $20bn and $30bn (£12.5bn and £18.7bn), compared with its initial estimate of between $15bn and $35bn, issued on 13 March.

Unlike the initial estimate, the revised prediction factors in the impact of the tsunami. The combined loss estimate comprises insured losses from ground-shaking and quake-related fires of between $11bn and $21bn, and insured losses from the tsunami of between $8bn and $9.7bn.

AIR’s loss estimate also includes payouts from the government-backed insurer Japan Earthquake Reinsurance and is net of government recoveries.