LLoyd's to make £5bn profits, says ALM

The Association of Lloyd's Members (ALM) has forecasted pure year profits of 20% of capacity for the pure 2002 account, after personal expenses, and the same again in 2003, subject to average claims experience. Pure year profits do not take into account prior year deterioration.

The forecast compares with Lloyd's August forecast of 12.6% pure year profit for 2002 account and Moody's September forecast of 14.5%, said the ALM.

The ALM's forecast would equate to profits of £2.6bn and £3bn before prior year deterioration.

Despite allowing for £400m and £200m prior year deterioration for the 2002 and 2003 accounts respectively, the ALM said it believed that aggregate profits for these two years of account could reach £5bn.