As GISC has made clear, this week's new regime is just the start. Putting aside whether it should have made many of these changes earlier (our view) or whether it has achieved a good compromise in a short time (the view of GISC, ABI, Biba, AIIB, Lloyd's et al), what will the future hold?

Here's a few predictions. In three years' time, many of the distribution channels for general insurance will have changed radically or disappeared. Retailers (of any description) selling policies with no thought as to their suitability for the consumer will have ceased to trade.

Such shoddy practice will have been ended. The Ombudsman will have rammed home the message that such selling is unacceptable, and lawyers will have taken a major seller to court for failing in its duty of care to the consumer (no doubt, ironically, funded by legal expenses insurance).

Some small, high street brokers, too, will have disappeared. Those with a niche or who demonstrably add value will survive, but the broker who simply finds the cheapest policy on the screen – often to the detriment of the insurer – will be gone.

Banks and supermarkets may still sell insurance, but they will have dedicated teams and special offices to do so, perhaps even by buying independent intermediaries or by setting up their own. Smart brokers may win the franchises available.

Consumers will want to contact their seller by phone, fax, email and the internet, but they will also want to walk in and meet face-to-face.

And the regulatory regime will get tougher. Good self-regulation will keep the FSA at bay, but the GISC will have to impose tough rules. Privately, the GISC knows that. So should everyone else.

There will be no future for those looking backwards. It's time to look ahead.


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