Global warning

Britain's weather is no longer a subject for public ribaldry, but is a deadly serious issue, as experts warn that it will get even worse, with major implications for the insurance industry, householders and commercial property owners.

Longer-term weather forecasting is now taking on an added importance as flood frequency increases and pressure grows on the government to act over inadequate flood defences. And those in high risk areas face considerably higher premiums.

But forecasting weeks ahead is not an exact science, and the weathermen are the first to admit they do not always get it right - remember their failure to predict the massive storms of October 1987.

Norwich Union (NU) is at the forefront of the movement persuading government to act. NU has taken a tougher line on flood claims, increasing the number of high-risk area postcodes it "refers" to underwriters.

NU head of household products Nick Pierson says: "It has become clear planning, maintenance and funding of flood defences is currently inadequate to protect against major flooding, a fact recently acknowledged by the National Audit Office."

Tim Palmer, a divisional research head at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), based at Reading in Berkshire, has produced a paper on global warming and its future impact on flooding. Its conclusions are alarming.

According to Palmer, the kind of extreme weather involving flooding could occur every ten years this century as against once every 50 years in the 20th century - an increased factor of five.

The ECMWF, an international body supported by 22 European states, has been looking at statistical analysis of climate model forecasts from around the world on increased levels of carbon dioxide (CO2).

Palmer says: "We are taking seasons in the 20th century that occur only once in every 50 years on average, and looking at these climate model predictions for the second half of this century, and asking how much more frequent those types would be."

Climate models
The ECMWF study in this field works from 19 different climate models, which have all been run to obtain 20th century levels of carbon dioxide to obtain a base line.

These are then projected across this century, using increased levels of CO2 of 1% a year, one of the standard scenarios for increasing levels of CO2.

He warns: "One of the messages is these extreme events do occur naturally, and are predicted to occur much more frequently, particularly in northern Europe.

"Other parts of the world may be different, but in northern Europe there is quite a strong signal coming from these increased levels of CO2."

Such is the growing concern among underwriters and claims managers about the weather, that the Met Office provides training on meteorological issues for insurance professionals.

The Met Office also provides risk assessment services to businesses as well as insurers and reinsurers. There is also a web service for insurers and an online weather derivatives system to enable the hedging of exposures.

In addition, work is being carried out with brokers around the world to incorporate weather hazards into their predictive risk assessment models.

The Met Office is also researching into long-range or seasonal prediction. Currently its long-range forecast is up to 30 days. To improve forecasting, it is purchasing a new supercomputer to predict weather and climate change.

Met Office IT services head Alan Douglas says: "The upgrade will allow us to use higher-resolution models with improved computational and physical processing, enabling us to get more accurate forecasts of both near, current weather and longer-term climate trends."

Unlike short-term forecasts, which predict the evolution of individual weather systems, and medium-term forecasting, which predicts up to 15 days ahead, seasonal forecasts provide outlooks for the expected average conditions over three months.

But for loss adjusters, long-term forecasting is of little use. According to Neil Ventris, managing director of claims management services at Crawford THG, their need is "the here and now".

He adds: "We are closer to the ground, and for us long-term weather forecasting does not enable us to plan in any constructive way because it is sufficiently unpredictable."

Seasonal forecasting
Ventris says it is very much a case of not what is going to happen, but more importantly - where. In recent years, he adds, the promises of high storm levels and flooding from global warming have been erratic.

But, as an example of growing insurance industry interest in long-term weather forecasting, reinsurance brokers Benfield Greig have a service provided by the department of space and climate physics at London's University College (UCL).

Dr Mark Saunders, head of the department's seasonal forecasting group, says: "We do long-range forecasts for various types of extreme weather out to nine months or a year ahead, including Atlantic hurricanes, Pacific typhoons and Australian cyclones.

"Closer to home we do forecasts for winter and spring weather. We have just developed a model for the north Atlantic oscillation, which appears closely linked to winter weather over large parts of Europe including the UK."

Dr Saunders says for tropical regions they can forecast nine months or a year ahead, but for mid-latitudes such as the UK, the range is somewhat shorter - a few months at most.

Although the UCL department has been going only three years, it has models of simulated real-time forecasts going back 15 years. This shows how the forecasts would have performed over that time.

Another major body involved in future projections of weather patterns is the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, part of the Met Office.

This provides up-to-date expert assessment of natural and human-based causes resulting in changes in global and regional climate.

According to a Met Office briefing paper for the Association of British Insurers on windstorms, between 1950 and 1999 about 70% of insured losses resulting from natural catastrophes were caused by windstorms in Europe.

The brief adds: "Climate model predictions for the future indicate that global temperatures are expected to increase." N

Hurricane watch on the web
The Benfield Greig Hazard Research Centre, supplies weather risk information through its website at www.tropicalstormrisk.com .

It predicts that during the 2002 Atlantic hurricane season strikes on the US and Caribbean Lesser Antilles will be 15% above the ten-year average and 40% to 50% above the 30-year average.

Its early February forecast update for Atlantic hurricane activity in 2002 continues to anticipate another active hurricane season.

The forecast relates to the Atlantic season from 1 June 2002 to 30 November 2002 and is based on data gathered up to the end of January 2002.

The reason for predicting above average activity in 2002 is the continued expectation for neutral El Nino conditions, combined with warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures and weaker than normal trade winds over the Caribbean Sea and tropical north Atlantic from July to September 2002. Projections have risen slightly from last month due to small shifts in each predictor favouring increased hurricane activity.
Britain's weather is no longer a subject for public ribaldry, but is a deadly serious issue, as experts warn that it will get even worse, with major implications for the insurance industry, householders and commercial property owners.

Longer-term weather forecasting is now taking on an added importance as flood frequency increases and pressure grows on the government to act over inadequate flood defences. And those in high risk areas face considerably higher premiums.

But forecasting weeks ahead is not an exact science, and the weathermen are the first to admit they do not always get it right - remember their failure to predict the massive storms of October 1987.

Norwich Union (NU) is at the forefront of the movement persuading government to act. NU has taken a tougher line on flood claims, increasing the number of high-risk area postcodes it "refers" to underwriters.

NU head of household products Nick Pierson says: "It has become clear planning, maintenance and funding of flood defences is currently inadequate to protect against major flooding, a fact recently acknowledged by the National Audit Office."

Tim Palmer, a divisional research head at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), based at Reading in Berkshire, has produced a paper on global warming and its future impact on flooding. Its conclusions are alarming.

According to Palmer, the kind of extreme weather involving flooding could occur every ten years this century as against once every 50 years in the 20th century - an increased factor of five.

The ECMWF, an international body supported by 22 European states, has been looking at statistical analysis of climate model forecasts from around the world on increased levels of carbon dioxide (CO2).

Palmer says: "We are taking seasons in the 20th century that occur only once in every 50 years on average, and looking at these climate model predictions for the second half of this century, and asking how much more frequent those types would be."

Climate models
The ECMWF study in this field works from 19 different climate models, which have all been run to obtain 20th century levels of carbon dioxide to obtain a base line.

These are then projected across this century, using increased levels of CO2 of 1% a year, one of the standard scenarios for increasing levels of CO2.

He warns: "One of the messages is these extreme events do occur naturally, and are predicted to occur much more frequently, particularly in northern Europe.

"Other parts of the world may be different, but in northern Europe there is quite a strong signal coming from these increased levels of CO2."

Such is the growing concern among underwriters and claims managers about the weather, that the Met Office provides training on meteorological issues for insurance professionals.

The Met Office also provides risk assessment services to businesses as well as insurers and reinsurers. There is also a web service for insurers and an online weather derivatives system to enable the hedging of exposures.

In addition, work is being carried out with brokers around the world to incorporate weather hazards into their predictive risk assessment models.

The Met Office is also researching into long-range or seasonal prediction. Currently its long-range forecast is up to 30 days. To improve forecasting, it is purchasing a new supercomputer to predict weather and climate change.

Met Office IT services head Alan Douglas says: "The upgrade will allow us to use higher-resolution models with improved computational and physical processing, enabling us to get more accurate forecasts of both near, current weather and longer-term climate trends."

Unlike short-term forecasts, which predict the evolution of individual weather systems, and medium-term forecasting, which predicts up to 15 days ahead, seasonal forecasts provide outlooks for the expected average conditions over three months.

But for loss adjusters, long-term forecasting is of little use. According to Neil Ventris, managing director of claims management services at Crawford THG, their need is "the here and now".

He adds: "We are closer to the ground, and for us long-term weather forecasting does not enable us to plan in any constructive way because it is sufficiently unpredictable."

Seasonal forecasting
Ventris says it is very much a case of not what is going to happen, but more importantly - where. In recent years, he adds, the promises of high storm levels and flooding from global warming have been erratic.

But, as an example of growing insurance industry interest in long-term weather forecasting, reinsurance brokers Benfield Greig have a service provided by the department of space and climate physics at London's University College (UCL).

Dr Mark Saunders, head of the department's seasonal forecasting group, says: "We do long-range forecasts for various types of extreme weather out to nine months or a year ahead, including Atlantic hurricanes, Pacific typhoons and Australian cyclones.

"Closer to home we do forecasts for winter and spring weather. We have just developed a model for the north Atlantic oscillation, which appears closely linked to winter weather over large parts of Europe including the UK."

Dr Saunders says for tropical regions they can forecast nine months or a year ahead, but for mid-latitudes such as the UK, the range is somewhat shorter - a few months at most.

Although the UCL department has been going only three years, it has models of simulated real-time forecasts going back 15 years. This shows how the forecasts would have performed over that time.

Another major body involved in future projections of weather patterns is the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, part of the Met Office.

This provides up-to-date expert assessment of natural and human-based causes resulting in changes in global and regional climate.

According to a Met Office briefing paper for the Association of British Insurers on windstorms, between 1950 and 1999 about 70% of insured losses resulting from natural catastrophes were caused by windstorms in Europe.

The brief adds: "Climate model predictions for the future indicate that global temperatures are expected to increase." N

Hurricane watch on the web
The Benfield Greig Hazard Research Centre, supplies weather risk information through its website at www.tropicalstormrisk.com .

It predicts that during the 2002 Atlantic hurricane season strikes on the US and Caribbean Lesser Antilles will be 15% above the ten-year average and 40% to 50% above the 30-year average.

Its early February forecast update for Atlantic hurricane activity in 2002 continues to anticipate another active hurricane season.

The forecast relates to the Atlantic season from 1 June 2002 to 30 November 2002 and is based on data gathered up to the end of January 2002.

The reason for predicting above average activity in 2002 is the continued expectation for neutral El Nino conditions, combined with warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures and weaker than normal trade winds over the Caribbean Sea and tropical north Atlantic from July to September 2002. Projections have risen slightly from last month due to small shifts in each predictor favouring increased hurricane activity.