The US and Caribbean will have to brace themselves for another six tropical storms next year.
The US and Caribbean will have to brace themselves for another active Atlantic hurricane season next year.
Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), a consortium of UK insurance industry experts and scientists on seasonal forecasting, has predicted four tropical storm strikes on the US in 2002, of which two will be hurricanes.
Two tropical storm hits, including one hurricane, have been predicted for the Caribbean Lesser Antilles. For the Atlantic basin as a whole, TSR said it expected thirteen tropical storms, with eight of these being hurricanes and three intense hurricanes.
Such activity would be 10% above the average level for the past ten years and 30-40% above the prior 30-year average.
The Atlantic hurricane season lasts from 1 June to 30 November.
TSR lead scientist Mark Saunders said: "Our projections for the Atlantic in 2002 sustain the recent cycle of high hurricane activity, with 1995-2002 set to become the most active eight-year period for Atlantic hurricanes on record.
"The total of 65 hurricanes from 1995 to 2002 would exceed by four the previous highest eight-year total set in 1948-1955. There can be little doubt the Atlantic is in a more active hurricane phase."
Hurricanes rank above earthquakes and floods as the USA's costliest natural disaster. The average damage bill per year from hurricane strikes on the continental US, 1926 to 2000, is estimated to be US $5.1bn (£3.6bn).
TSR forecasts cover three regions of tropical cyclone activity - the Atlantic, Australia and NW Pacific.
TSR said it had correctly predicted the above average 2001 Atlantic hurricane season and the numbers of Australian-region tropical storms, severe tropical cyclones and Queensland-striking tropical storms during the 2000/2001 season.
It added that it had also predicted the numbers of NW Pacific tropical storms (25), typhoons (14), intense typhoons (7) and Japan-striking typhoons (2) occurring in 2000.
