The UK could face record rainfall this winter, says new research from the Met Office
There’s a one-in-three chance of record rainfall this winter in at least one region of England and Wales, according to new research from the Met Office.
Raising the spectre of a repeat or worse of the floods of 2014 and 2015, the Met office unveiled new, innovative research showed that there is a 7% risk of record monthly rainfall in the Southeast in any given winter. But when the other regions of England and Wales are added to the mix, the likelihood of one region facing unprecedented levels of rainfall between October and March rises to 34%.
Professor Adam Scaife, who leads this area of research at the Met Office said “The new Met Office supercomputer was used to simulate thousands of possible winters, some of them much more extreme than we’ve yet witnessed. This gave many more extreme events than have happened in the real world, helping us work out how severe things could get.”
In winter 2013/14 a succession of storms hit the UK leading to record rainfall and flooding in many regions including the south east. December 2015 was similar, and Storm Desmond hit the north-west causing widespread flooding and storm damage.
Dr Vikki Thompson, lead author of the report, said “Our computer simulations provided one hundred times more data than is available from observed records. Our analysis showed that these events could happen at any time and it’s likely we will see record monthly rainfall in one of our UK regions in the next few years”
The research has demonstrated that, even with the current climate, it is likely that there will be one or more monthly regional rainfall record events, in the coming decade.