Catatrophic flu pandemic 'long overdue'
A new report issued today by Marsh and The Albright Group warns that the catastrophic impacts of a long-lasting pandemic are not only likely to happen, but overdue.
The study also states the impact of a pandemic is likely to exceed what most corporate and governmental leaders have imagined, or are prepared for.
The report comes on the heels of U.S. government reports issued earlier this month that come to similar conclusions.
The Marsh – Albright Group report has two primary focuses: social and economic. The social impact looks at the health and well-being of citizens, families, employees, customers and business partners. The economic impact includes a deeper understanding of the potential for disruption of operations and supply chains, as well as diminishing or fluxing demand for products and services.
The scientific consensus is that an avian pandemic could sicken 20 percent of the world’s population, result in absenteeism of 40 percent of the global workforce, and kill tens, if not hundreds, of millions of people. The report goes on to say that outbreaks will likely move along modern transportation and distribution chains, with transportation hubs being especially vulnerable. Disruption at these hubs will be significant and could have an irreversible impact on businesses.
“We found very few companies adequately prepared to protect their people or ensure the continuity of their business in the event of a pandemic,” said John Merkovsky, president of Marsh’s risk consulting unit.
“We cannot afford to develop pandemic ‘fatigue’ or a sense of complacency around this particular risk,” said former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, Principal of The Albright Group. “With so many other pressing issues, preparing for a pandemic may not currently fall high on the list of priorities for businesses; but not doing so could result in devastating consequences for their operations.”
Marsh says discussions with global companies reveal the majority of them believe it is unlikely that a pandemic could strike their operations. But the fallacy in this thinking is found in a narrow view that does not take into account the global interdependencies of today’s economy, it said.
“Many companies don’t believe a sufficient business case has been made for taking action today,” said Gary Lynch, managing director and practice leader for Marsh’s Global Risk Intelligence Strategies. “But we’re hopeful this report, and the additional work being done by other experts around this emerging risk scenario, will continue to raise awareness and acknowledgement that additional action is required – sooner rather than later.”
Just in the last few years, an outbreak of SARS – which never reached pandemic status, but spread quickly from a single case in rural China – resulted in billions of dollars in economic damage. However, since there is no effective risk transfer mechanism for a pandemic, the only answer remains planning and mitigation activities.
