Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), the consortium of experts on insurance, risk management and seasonal climate forecasting, has warned of an active hurricane season for 2006.
TSR's start-of-season outlook anticipates Atlantic basin and U.S. landfalling hurricane activity being 40% above the long-term (1950-2005) norm in 2006. The prediction includes:
• A 74% probability of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, a 22% probability of a near-normal season and only a 4% chance of a below-normal season.
• An expectation of 14 tropical storms for the Atlantic basin as a whole, with 8 of these being hurricanes and 3 intense hurricanes.
• A 70% probability of above-normal US landfalling hurricane activity, a 22% likelihood of a near-normal season and only an 8% chance of a below-normal season.
• 4 tropical storm strikes on the US, of which 2 will be hurricanes.
Professor Mark Saunders, the TSR lead scientist and head of seasonal forecasting and meteorological
hazards at the Benfield Hazard Research Centre, said: “We are witnessing record levels of Atlantic and US landfalling hurricane activity. The years 2003 to 2005 have seen the highest three-year total number of U.S. hurricane landfalls since 1900. Based on current and projected climate signals, 2006 looks likely to be yet another above average year for Atlantic hurricanes.”
Saunders added, however, that “Despite this forecast, the chance of 2006 seeing hurricane activity as high as in 2005, which was the most active and destructive season on record, is low. The current forecast is 20% lower than at this time last year. In particular we expect the Gulf of Mexico to witness far fewer intense hurricanes than in 2005.”
The hurricane season runs from 1 June to 30 November.
TSR forecasts may be accessed through the website www.tropicalstormrisk.com
