Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has raised its forecasts for the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season, saying storm activity will be approximately 150% of average.
The upgrade represents a 20% increase on the prediction made during July.
TSR said there is now an 86% probability of an above-normal hurricane season, a 13% probability of a near-normal season and only a 1% chance of a below-normal season.
It said it anticipates four tropical storm strikes on the US during the season, of which two will be hurricanes.
TSR has also slightly raised its earlier projection for an above-average Northwest Pacific typhoon season in 2004.
Activity is now forecast to be about 130% of average which represents a 10% upgrading on last month.
The company also slightly reduced its earlier forecast for the Australia region, and said the season will see below-average tropical storm activity.
Activity is forecast to be about 80% of average, said TSR, which represents a 10% downgrading on last month.
There is a 50% probability that Australian-region tropical storm numbers in 2004/5 will be below-average, a 33%likelihood they will be near normal and only a 17% chance they will be above-normal, it said.
