Ten predictions for how the industry will be shaped over the coming year

Take in the views from the Insurance Times Power Network on pages 10-13 and you’ll see there are mixed predictions for 2010. Many foresee the beginnings of the big economic fix, but predict slow momentum as growth levels remain flat, the market shrinks and clients struggle with affordability issues. But that’s not to say that the key drivers and dynamics will remain stagnant. Here are ten predictions for change over the next 12 months:

1. At least one more private motor underwriter will be put into run-off.

2. More top-level insurer management reshuffles will follow the changes at Aviva and Zurich. AXA?

3. At least one consolidator will disappear through acquisition or break-up.

4. We will see increased insurer consolidation; expect two to three sizeable deals.

5. There will be a return of private investor capital and insurer investment returns. And a start-up reinsurer class of 2010?

6. A new Conservative government will retain the FSA, talk big on regulation and scrutiny of the financial sector, but will ultimately take a light-touch approach.

7. It will be the year of the MBO.

8. Mark Hodges will spin plates to perform as “all things to all men” to get Aviva’s premium level back on track (see interview, page 16).

9. There will be more rhetoric about cleaning up a feral claims market, but it won’t happen.

10. And surprise, surprise: rates will remain flat but we’ll fill thousands of column inches from chief executives talking them up.

Three’s a charm at the Global Leaders Forum

This week we launch the third Global Leaders Forum: ‘Understanding recovery, ready for growth’. The event will be held at the Hilton Tower Bridge on 14 October and will feature a number of presentations from market leaders, as well as alternative views from investors such as Bill Cooper, the boss of Lloyds Banking Group, and the Insurance Times interview. For more information and to book an early place, contact Debbie Kidman on 020 7618 3094. IT