A war in Iraq could be profitable.
According to market insiders, a short successful conflict with low losses could produce significant profits for Lloyd's.
But insurers and equity analysts fear the possibility of revenge attacks and global economic gloom which are "dangerously difficult to quantify".
Analysis by Commerzbank gives a 50% likelihood of a swift end to war and apositive effect on markets (see graphic above).
During the last Gulf War, the insurance sector fell 25.6% between August 1990 and January 1991, before rallying 13.5% on the success of Western action.
