Aviva alone facing £20m-£40m bill: analyst

Aviva, RSA and Legal & General (L&G) are the large listed general insurers with the largest exposures to the UK flooding this year, according to Panmure Gordon insurance analyst Barrie Cornes.

Cornes estimated that Aviva had an approximately 12% stake in the homeowners market, meaning that it will face flood claims of around £20m-£40m in the first half of 2012.

RSA has a homeowners share of around 4% and claims of approximately £8m-£15m, while L&G has a share of around 3% and a claims bill of between £5m and £13m, according to Cornes.

In a statement, Cornes said: “Whilst these costs are relatively immaterial, given the wet start to July and the forecast of more to come, the H2 impact could be much worse although unlikely to be on the same scale as the floods in Q3 2007.”

Cornes added that Direct Line and Lloyds & St Andrews had homeowner stakes of around 15% and 13% respectively, but gave no estimates about claims.

He added: “We note however that the worst of the rain/flooding occurred in the last 3 days of June and the July downpours will have a progressively worse impact as the rain falls on already sodden ground.”