The number of annual asbestos-linked deaths from mesothelioma will peak at a lower level than previously predicted, said the Health and Safety Executive (HSE). It will also reach its peak sooner than previously thought.
The number of mesothelioma deaths in the UK for males and females of all ages is now predicted to peak somewhere between 1,950 and 2,450 annually. The HSE said the peak would be reached between 2011 and 2015.
This updates a projection made in 1995 which suggested an annual peak of between 2,700 and 3,300 deaths around the year 2020.
HSE senior statistician John Hodgson said: "Previous projections have been based on a rather simple statistical model in which mesothelioma deaths were related to age and date of birth. More recent data suggests a different and more complex model is needed to account for the changing pattern of asbestos exposure.
"This latest analysis suggests a lower estimated peak for mesothelioma deaths than predicted in 1995, occurring sooner. But the total numbers are still substantial."
Mesothelioma is a form of cancer that principally affects the external lining of the lungs and lower digestive tract. It has a strong association with exposure to asbestos dust.
The latency period between first exposure to asbestos and the development and diagnosis of mesothelioma is seldom less than 15 years but can be as long as 60 years.
Most deaths (around 85%) occur in men. Mesothelioma is exceptionally rare in the absence of exposure to asbestos.
