The US and Caribbean should brace for yet another active Atlantic hurricane season in 2006, with US landfalling hurricane activity expected to be 60% above normal next season, according to Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).
TSR said it is 81% likely that US landfalling hurricane activity in 2006 will be in the top one-third of years historically.
16 tropical storms are predicted for the Atlantic basin as a whole, with eight of these being hurricanes and four intense hurricanes. The system also predicted five tropical storm strikes on the US, of which two will be hurricanes.
Professor Mark Saunders, the TSR lead scientist and head of seasonal forecasting and meteorological hazards at the Benfield Hazard Research Centre said: "We are witnessing record levels of Atlantic and US landfalling hurricane activity. Based on current and projected climate signals this high activity looks set to continue through 2006."
However, he added: "Despite the forecast for another active hurricane season in 2006, the chance of seeing as many as five intense hurricanes in the Gulf (as happened in 2005) is extremely remote.
"No other year since 1950 has recorded more than two intense Gulf hurricanes. Thus despite the forecast, we are most unlikely to see a repeat of the Gulf devastation witnessed in 2005."
