Rise in vulnerable road users could push motor claims costs up 6%

While the number of drivers and passengers killed or injured on UK roads has fallen substantially since 2010, the same level of improvement has not been seen among vulnerable road users – a fact which could see motor claims rise as the usage profile of UK roads evolves.

This is according to new analysis from insurance consultancy Angelica Solutions, released today (12 August 2026).

Vulnerable road users are defined as those who lack physical protection – such as a vehicle’s metal shell, airbags and crumple zones – and includes walkers, cyclists and motorcyclists.

The vulnerable group has seen casualty rates fall by just 16% since 2010, while overall casualty rates for vehicle users have fallen by 46%.

The risk profile evolution now means the vulnerable group represents 40% of all road collision casualties across the country, as well as 57% of those killed or seriously injured,

Angelica Solutions added that the government’s current £4.5bn push to increase the number of people “walking, wheeling and cycling” could change insurer risk profiles substantially.

Indeed, modelling from the firm suggested that a 60% increase in walkers and cyclists could lead to an 18% rise in third-party injury costs and a 6% uplift to overall motor claims costs.

Changing casualty mix

Sarah Vaughan, director at Angelica Solutions, explained: “Over the past decade the motor market has successfully adapted to major legal reforms, including the whiplash reform programme, changes to the small claims track and revisions to the Ogden discount rate.

“Those changes have fundamentally reshaped motor injury claims, the former particularly affecting lower value claims.”

She continued: “The casualty mix is changing as pedestrians, cyclists and motorcyclists are disproportionately represented in the most serious injury claims, meaning a growing share of insurers’ overall claims spend is likely to be concentrated in complex, high-value losses.

“As government policies encourage more active travel, insurers have an opportunity to look beyond simply pricing this changing risk and instead help shape how it is managed.”