Trade credit insurance reaches record £3tn exposure

Trade credit insurance reached a record exposure of approximately £3.07tn (€3.5tn) in 2024.

This is according to a new report from credit ratings agency Morningstar DBRS, published 20 November 2025, which saw reports from major insurers of solid profitability and healthy combined operating ratios (CORs).

However, the report also revealed apprehensions of narrowing margins, growing loss ratios and gross written premium (GWP) stagnation.

These fears in mind, Morningstar DBRS predicted that insurers’ overall credit profiles would remain stable across 2025 and early 2026, but see a growing likelihood of downside risks towards the end of the year.

At that point, the firm said insurers’ underwriting resilience could be tested by “slower trade growth and continued corporate insolvency pressures”, largely precipitated by “protectionist policies and deglobalisation”.

Reinsurance capital

The report also identified the buffer of reinsurance capital – some $660bn (£504bn) in the first half of 2025, according to a report from Gallagher Re – as key to allowing primary insurers to offer extensive trade credit insurance policies.

If a large economic downturn were to be seen, however, this plentiful reinsurance capacity could be rapidly restricted, transferring additional risk to insurers at what would already be a challenging time.

Marcos Alvarez, managing director of global financial institution ratings at Morningstar DBRS, said: “We expect trade credit insurers’ overall credit profile to remain stable in 2025 and the first half of 2026, but see downside risks skewed toward the end of next year, when slower trade growth and continued corporates insolvency pressures could test underwriting resilience.

“When trade flows falter, the hidden links across insurers’ balance sheets become more visible and more consequential for their credit quality”.