Global non-life premium growth forecast to slow to 1.7% in 2026

Global non-life insurance premium growth is predicted to be just 1.7% in 2026 – compared to 3.8% in 2025.

This prediction comes as the market reaches a cyclical low and hard market tendencies make way for competitive conditions, although recovery in 2027 and beyond is forecast despite ‘shifting sands’ in underlying global economic conditions.

That is according to the latest global economic and insurance market outlook report in (re)insurer Swiss Re’s Sigma report series, published 19 November 2025, which also predicted the insurance sector would see a robust 10.5% return on equity across 2026 despite the slowdown in growth.

The report also stressed that insurers would be affected by wider economic factors, such as “elevated and volatile” inflation, which would reduce consumer spending propensity, erode premiums and reserves and contribute to rising claims costs.

In contrast, Swiss Re identified several structural drivers that would contribute to premium growth over the medium term, including major commercial lines opportunities such as natural catastrophe exposure, re-industrialising countries and liability cover related to artificial intelligence (AI) usage.

In terms of personal lines, the UK saw largely unchanged premiums-per-policy in home insurance in the latest year-on-year comparisons, while motor policies saw a 10% fall in premiums-per-policy amid high customer turnover.

Medium-term boost

Talking at the report launch event, Jerome Jean Haegeli, group chief economist at Swiss Re, explained that one trend stood above all others in its potential to boost medium-term insurance chain value, though bringing with it clear risks – AI adoption.

Haegeli said: “There has never been a technology with such a high rate of adoption as AI. I think there’s going to be a real impact on the economy, though there are clearly economic downside risks.

“It’s really interesting to see that distribution is the number one use case [of AI], where 55% of P&C firms use it. You also see it more and more in underwriting, operations and claims.

“When you think about AI and the insurance company value chain, yes there are upsides, but there are also downsides.”