Only specialist lines see growth as commercial sector suffers seventh quarter of GWP falls

Commercial lines brokers have endured almost two years of successive quarterly decreases in placed premium.

And now the second quarter of 2026 has delivered the steepest fall yet – an 11.7% drop which marks the seventh consecutive quarter of decline.

The stark figures come from September’s edition of the Insurance Times Commercial Lines Premium Index, released in association with insurance technology partner Open GI.

The index’s headline figure – which represents the gross written premium (GWP) placed by commercial lines brokers via the Open GI platform – has been in decline since Q4 2024, when GWP fell 3% compared to the same quarter the prior year.

Since then, no quarter has seen a drop of less than 6.7% and despite a few periods of slowing decline and improvement across select lines, the trend shows no sign of abating.

Nick Giddings, director of partner and distribution at Open GI, explained that the “early signs of hardening we saw glimpses of last quarter have not held” and that once again “softening has broadened rather than eased”.

Giddings continued: “Competitive new business pricing is still the default insurer behaviour and renewals continue to come in lower than businesses might expect based on prior years.”

Related quarters

Arranging the data by related quarters – represented as columns on the table below – the scale of the issue becomes apparent. Each quarter – save for Q3 – has now seen two successive years of GWP falls, meaning premiums remain markedly and universally lower than across 2024.

Commenting on the trend, Matt Pini, managing partner at Consilium Risk Solutions, said: “We are seeing similar trends across many commercial lines, with a modest reduction in average GWP per risk as market conditions continue to soften.

“However, we don’t view this as a major concern. Increased insurer appetite and competition are often delivering broader coverage, more competitive excesses and better overall value for clients.

“Our focus is ensuring retail brokers and their clients make informed decisions rather than simply pursuing the lowest premium. While the current market is favourable for buyers, insurance remains cyclical and conditions can change quickly.”

Ian Brown, chief risk officer at Moorhouse, added that the GWP falls are not purely being driven by rate changes, but also by changes to risk and product selection by consumers.

“We have seen some adjustments in levels of cover and customers reviewing or challenging what they need, potentially creating some cover gaps,” he said.

”We have seen some dilution of customer employee numbers in favour of external contractors, possibly also driven by national insurance (NI) changes.”

Specialist lines grow

Across the major commercial lines, only specialist products saw GWP growth in the quarter – building on the 2.5% uplift seen last quarter to grow by another 4.1%. Commercial combined, packages and combined liability brokers, however, all saw major hits.

Giddings explained: “Specialist was the only line of business to grow – up 4.1% – while packages, the strongest performer in Q1 with 3.5% growth, swung to a 16.4% decline.

“Combined liability remains the outlier to watch, decreasing to −21.7% in Q2. That’s a longer and steeper run than commercial combined, which has shown signs of moderating.”

In addition, contractors and tradesmen product brokers saw a modest fall of 3.5% in placement year-over-year, while fleet brokers saw a 3.7% decline and property owners brokers a larger 9.8% dip.

Packages sub-lines see mixed results

The most notable about-turn in performance was registered by the packages segment. In the first quarter of this year, packages saw the biggest GWP improvement – climbing 3.5% – but in the second quarter, it registered the second largest fall at 16.4%.

Investigating the segment by sub-line, the driving forces of the decline become apparent. Marine cover – which makes up just over 50% of placed premium in the segment – saw a dramatic 26% drop in GWP compared to Q2 2025.

Packages for businesses (-16.2%), shops and salons (-9%), pubs and restaurants (-8.4%) and cyber cover (-5.5%) all saw meaningful drops. Only haulage (8.6%), office and surgery (2.6%) and sports and leisure (1.9%) packages saw GWP climb.

Brown said that it was “difficult to call” when such rate drops might reverse and that it could be “well into 2027 before we see some changes”.

He added: “Many companies will have calendar year end targets to meet or bridge gaps too, so we could even see some more aggressive pricing in the last quarter of 2026. A significant carrier will need to start the process, but do so without fear of losing critical market share and there is currently no sign or indications of that.

“Given the variety of insurance types [affected by soft market conditions], it is also unlikely we’ll see a catastrophic event – which no-one in the market wants to see – affecting or accelerating these timescales.”

Pini, meanwhile, explained that the market is “likely to harden when underwriting profitability comes under pressure”.

“That could be driven by a series of significant losses, deteriorating claims performance or simply carriers failing to achieve their anticipated returns,” he added.

”When that happens, insurers will inevitably become more selective, capacity will reduce and rates will begin to increase.

“At present, however, competition remains intense and pricing is attractive for buyers. Some insurers and MGAs are clearly backing their underwriting strategies and long-term growth plans. Whether the current rate levels deliver adequate profitability remains to be seen.”