‘Tons of opportunities’ in ‘softening’ market for 2026 – Lloyd’s Rachel Turk

There are “tons of opportunities for smart underwriting” despite lower returns on capital amid a softening market, according to Lloyd’s chief of market performance Rachel Turk.

Speaking at Fitch Ratings’ Insurance Insights conference in London last week (22 January 2026), Turk outlined the opportunities in a “softening market” rather than a “soft one”.

Turk told delegates that this is because the market “could turn on a knife edge”.

She said: “The insurance market is highly cyclical and these are the sorts of conditions that typically see a period of sustained softening, but if you look at the long-term return on capital it isn’t such a pretty picture.

“Now we can predict what the 2025 return on capital will be [and] it’ll be akin to 2023 and 2024’s numbers. My view is the requirement to maintain the return on capital is high in everybody’s minds, [especially in] capital providers’ and syndicate minds.”

The last reported figures for return on capital at Lloyd’s are +7.6% at the end of 2024. Turk said that new syndicates have the highest growth percentage.

She continued: “The return on capital is partly what’s driving the fact that it is not inevitable that we move into a completely soft market, but with that backdrop I’m confident on the current market positioning.

“The total return on market is significant [and] it’s going to grow.”

Market opportunities

During the conference, Turk noted that biggest near-term opportunities for growth this year will be in credit, facilities and distribution chain disruption.

Presenting the Lloyd’s projected figures for 2026, Turk reported that the market was set to write £67.4bn gross written premium (GWP) which is 2.3% like for like growth against its Q3 2025 forecast of £59.8bn.

She explained that the main growth is from new business to Lloyd’s with “people wanting to double down” on “cross-class broker facilities, structured solutions [and] new entrants that are transferring in business from their corporate balance sheets onto the Lloyd’s balance sheet”.

She added that broader, cross-class facilities is also helping to attract new business to Lloyd’s as they are “naturally much less volatile than the Lloyd’s results overall” when managed effectively.