Over four million homes could be at risk of subsidence by 2070

Over four million UK homes could be at risk of damage from subsidence by the year 2070, according to a new study released by the British Geological Survey (BGS).

Subsidence – ground movement caused by the shrinking of soil as water-rich clay minerals dehydrate in dry periods – is already a major driver of property damage, with an ABI report suggesting that some £154m of related claims were lodged in the first half of 2025.

The BGS study assessed three different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, finding that under a high-emission regime, some 4.2 million properties could experience subsidence risk as UK temperatures grow. Should a low-emission scenario be achieved – in line with the Paris Climate Agreement – this number could be as low as 500,000.

In addition, research published by comparison site Uswitch found that subsidence claims have overtaken fire, theft and flood claims to become the UK’s most expensive single payout type, averaging £17,000 per claim.

Its research also found that policy excesses for subsidence claims typically stand at between £1,000 and £2,500 – up to 10 times more expensive than the excesses on standard claims due to the high cost of structural investigations.

Subsidence risk

Leoni Moninska, insurances expert at Uswitch, said: “Subsidence is an area where homeowners can easily be caught out, both by the risk to their property and by the excess they’d face on a claim.

“If you spot a crack, photograph it and monitor it over a few months. If it’s still changing, call a chartered surveyor for a diagnosis before involving your insurer.

“Use our subsidence risk map to check your area. If needed, make sure your home insurance policy includes subsidence cover, and find out what excess you’d face – so you know you’re on the right policy for your home.”